Like most fans, I’m still trying to wrap my head around what had happened Tuesday night.
For it to go into not one, but two overtimes–while coming back from a 21-point deficit and to still end up losing at home to a team that was right behind Iowa State in the Big 12 standings–is just wild.
I mean, I know we witnessed the first loss at home earlier this season to Kansas State, where the Cyclones had been on a 29-game home winning streak that went back to last season, but to see yet another home loss, especially on senior night, is crazy.
Now, with the loss to BYU and a Colorado loss to Texas Tech on Wednesday night, the Cyclones clinched the five seed in the Big 12 Tournament, which means they will only have a single bye and play next Wednesday, compared to being the four seed, which BYU now has, where they’d play next Thursday.
Along with the Big 12 movement, Iowa State’s loss will most likely take it down from a two seed to potentially a three or four seed in the NCAA Tournament, but it could still change since the Cyclones have one regular season game remaining, as well as how they perform in Kansas City.
But that raises the question: can a lower seeding play to the Cyclones’ advantage?
To start, we have the Big 12 Tournament.
The Cyclones would be playing the winner of the 12 and 13 game as the five seed, which is Cincinnati or UCF as of Wednesday.
While Iowa State has defeated the Knights twice already this season, its win over the Bearcats still ended up being close for the majority of the time, so Cincinnati might not be a pushover as it seems.
Regardless, if Iowa State were to get either and win that matchup Wednesday, it would play the four seed in the quarterfinals matchup next Thursday, which is currently BYU.
As if Tuesday night’s matchup wasn’t enough, we could see these two teams duke it out again, this time on neutral ground, which would make for some amazing basketball.
Except this time, let’s not have a 21-point deficit to climb out of, and let’s have some more scoring early on instead of it being gridlocked at zero for nearly five full minutes.
From there, after having experienced two games played, if they make it to this point, the Cyclones would most likely have to take on the top dogs in the conference with Houston in the semifinals.
If Iowa State goes into this potential matchup fully healthy, I can see the Cyclones taking down the Cougars in Kansas City, but maybe by not as much as last year, to have a chance to advance to their second consecutive Big 12 Championship appearance.
Now, will this be the case? I’d lean more towards no, but maybe with the extra game to play, it could play to Iowa State’s advantage and prepare it for the mountain it would have to climb to get to the top of the conference yet again.
For the NCAA Tournament, the Cyclones could also use the lower seed to their advantage, depending on where they officially end up on selection Sunday.
If Iowa State beats Kansas State to end the regular season and goes on a run in the Big 12 Tournament, it may not have as low of a seed as it currently seems, but if I were to figure, I’d expect to see the Cyclones around a three or four seed.
Whichever side of the bracket it lands on, Iowa State could sneakily make its way through its bracket and potentially make it past the Sweet 16 for the first time in the T.J. Otzelberger era.
But then again, there’s a lot of ‘what ifs’ in play, so all that’s left to do is wait and watch how the Cyclones not only finish the regular season but how they utilize their placements in the respective tournaments to their advantage.