Political science students at Iowa State have created their own 2024 election forecast model.
The model was made as part of a class project, according to their release, for POL S 4600 with Professor James Strohman.
According to the press release, the students “used historical results, current state-by-state polling data, down-ballot races, state referendums and current events to select a winner for each state.”
“We used the software Site.pro to create our website and attempt to predict the upcoming election,” Gabrielle Owen, a senior in political science and a creator of the model, stated. “Our class, based on polls and other data, concluded that Donald Trump would win the election. Our site was pretty fun to create as we collaborated with a team of students from our class.”
The students’ model predicts former President Donald Trump to win with 272 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 262.
The model has Trump winning four of the seven swing states, including Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, while Harris prevails in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
In 2020, then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden won six out of seven of the swing states, with the notable exception of North Carolina, a state that hasn’t gone for the Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama in 2008. Trump narrowly defeated Biden in the state by 1.34%.
“The experience was interesting and elucidated many important aspects of our election process,” Caleb Weingarten, a senior in philosophy and a collaborator of the model, stated. “The biggest surprise is learning how complex polling is and how it is difficult to know which polls to count on.”
Weingarten said he is confident in their model but is also prepared to be completely wrong.
“I imagine many in our class would agree,” Weingarten stated. “If there’s one thing about an election this close – especially when you consider swing and battleground states and thwart we’re a month removed – is that predictions can be extremely difficult to formulate.”
The website was officially launched Tuesday. The group of students will issue its final electoral college prediction on Oct. 29, one week before election day.
